Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations by Keren Yarhi-Milo

Author:Keren Yarhi-Milo [Yarhi-Milo, Keren]
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf
Tags: History, Modern, 20th Century, Political Science, International Relations, General, True Crime, Espionage
ISBN: 9780691159157
Google: ueTLngEACAAJ
Goodreads: 18730633
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2014-01-15T10:32:00+00:00

Summary of Predictions

Soviet conventional military programs, nuclear programs, and defense spending were seen as increasing between 1985 and 1987. US observers viewed the military balance as asymmetrically equivalent, Soviet military build up of counterforce capabilities as offensive, and increase in Soviet capabilities as beyond the requirements of security. The USSR’s commitment to eliminate intermediate-range nuclear forces under the INF Treaty came into effect in 1988 and constrained the Soviet’s ability to change the European status quo in its favor. Nevertheless, the United States continued to worry about the comprehensive build up and modernization of Soviet counterforce capabilities and defensive systems beyond what it perceived to be required for Soviet self-defense. Both the numerical preponderance and offense-defense hypotheses would lead us to expect that US decision makers and the US intelligence community would perceive Soviet intentions as hostile until 1988. Then, after the elimination of intermediate-range nuclear forces as well as the substantial decrease in Soviet conventional forces and defense spending, US perceptions of Soviet hostility should have moderated. We should see both sets of observers refer to qualitative and quantitative trends in Soviet military capabilities to justify their assessments.

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